Verdict
No edge found
Out-of-sample t-statistic -0.83 over 80 trades; nothing to promote.
- Walk-forward 2023-03 to 2026-01, 80 trades, t = -0.83.
- Hold-out not opened.
Promotion gates
No gates published for this strategy.
Explain the strategy
This idea tried to guess the direction of a small crude-oil futures contract using the day's price move, then trade it during the next day. Careful testing on three years of prices showed it did no better than chance after costs, so it was shelved.
Report
Rules and parameters
Rules
- Daily-bar signal, entry and exit simulated on 5-minute bars with conservative fills.
- Stop about 52 points (₹600 all-in), target about 127 points (₹1,200 net).
Parameters
- capital
- ₹1,00,000
- lot
- 1
- max loss per trade
- ₹600 all-in
- net target
- ≥ ₹1,200
- window
- 2023-03 to 2026-01
Instrument
MCX CRUDEOILM (10 bbl, ₹1 tick = ₹10) · capital ₹100,000
Known limitations
- Single instrument, about three years of continuous history.
- Costs (about ₹58 per round trip) are an estimate until reconciled with a contract note.
Logs and raw data
Downloads appear once a data window is loaded.
Files are plain CSV so results can be re-computed independently. Trade dates are IST sessions; returns are net of modelled costs and slippage.