TradeTech Analytics

Nifty 50 weekly expiries · end-of-day data · descriptive · v1.0.0 · research study 2026-10-29

Weekly expiry move study PARKED

Nifty 50: open of the session before expiry to the close on expiry day, every weekly expiry since 2019. 405 weekly expiries, 14 Feb 2019 to 19 Oct 2026: median absolute move 0.65%, more than ±2% in 47 (11.6%), more than ±5% in 4. Either side settled beyond OTM+2/+3/+4 in 59%/40%/28% of expiries.

Verdict

Descriptive: the 100-200 point strikes are breached often; tail moves drive the risk

Net move open(E-1) to close(E): median 0.65%, 90th percentile 2.10%; >±2% in 11.6% of expiries, >±5% in 4.

  • Sample: 405 weekly expiries (first weekly expiry 14 Feb 2019 to 19 Oct 2026); open of the previous trading session and close of expiry day from NSE's official daily index files.
  • Net move: mean -0.04%, median -0.05%, standard deviation 1.48%; above +2%: 23, below −2%: 24; above +5%: 1, below −5%: 3. Swing (high to low): median 1.48%, largest 14.25%.
  • Strike breach: the OTM+2/+3/+4 strikes are 100/150/200 points away. Settlement beyond the call or put: 59% / 40% / 28% of expiries; touched at some point: 89% / 68% / 49%.
  • Indicative sold-strangle result (premium proxy = E-2 settlement price, loss = intrinsic value at expiry, no costs): average +35.7 / +32.9 / +29.2 points per expiry, win rate 73% / 77% / 82%, worst expiry -657 / -640 / -620 points. Not a back-test: real opening premiums, costs and slippage are not included.
  • Intent noted: selling OTM+2/+3/+4 calls and puts at the E-1 open and letting them settle. The full report lists the questions and the proper next step (a minute-level, cost-aware test).

Promotion gates

No gates published for this strategy.

Explain the strategy

Every week the Nifty options expire. We measured how far the index travelled from the opening of the day before expiry to the expiry-day close. Usually under 1%, occasionally more than 2%, rarely more than 5%. The strikes you plan to sell are only 100-200 points away, which the index crosses fairly often.

Report

Every weekly expiry: open on E-1, close on E, move in points and %, swing and excursions

Expiry dateWeekdayE-1 sessionOpen on E-1Close on EMove pointsMove %Swing high-low %Max up excursion %Max down excursion %
2019-02-14Thu2019-02-1310870.5510746.05-124.5-1.1451.5910.194-1.396
2019-02-21Thu2019-02-2010655.4510789.85134.41.2611.5251.44-0.085
2019-02-28Thu2019-02-2710881.210792.5-88.7-0.8151.7320.538-1.195
2019-03-07Thu2019-03-0611024.8511058.233.350.3020.8180.582-0.236
2019-03-14Thu2019-03-1311326.211343.2517.050.1510.9430.505-0.438
2019-03-20Wed2019-03-1911500.311521.0520.750.180.9120.485-0.427
2019-03-28Thu2019-03-2711531.4511570.038.550.3341.5220.495-1.027
2019-04-04Thu2019-04-0311735.311598.0-137.3-1.171.720.219-1.501
2019-04-11Thu2019-04-1011646.8511596.7-50.15-0.4311.1120.285-0.827
2019-04-18Thu2019-04-1611736.211752.816.60.1411.0621.022-0.04
2019-04-25Thu2019-04-2411601.511641.840.30.3471.8781.683-0.195
2019-05-02Thu2019-04-3011748.7511724.75-24.0-0.2041.1350.345-0.79
2019-05-09Thu2019-05-0811478.711301.8-176.9-1.5411.9520.003-1.948
2019-05-16Thu2019-05-1511271.711257.1-14.6-0.131.3290.134-1.195
2019-05-23Thu2019-05-2211727.9511657.05-70.9-0.6053.6382.671-0.967
2019-05-30Thu2019-05-2911905.811945.940.10.3371.1070.527-0.58
2019-06-06Thu2019-06-0412052.6511843.75-208.9-1.7332.1980.353-1.845
2019-06-13Thu2019-06-1211962.4511914.05-48.4-0.4051.2150.0-1.215
2019-06-20Thu2019-06-1911744.4511831.7587.30.7431.860.843-1.016
2019-06-27Thu2019-06-2611768.1511841.5573.40.6241.3051.215-0.09
2019-07-04Thu2019-07-0311932.1511946.7514.60.1220.6890.311-0.378
2019-07-11Thu2019-07-1011536.1511582.946.750.4051.0690.545-0.524
2019-07-18Thu2019-07-1711670.7511596.9-73.85-0.6331.0650.308-0.757
2019-07-25Thu2019-07-2411322.4511252.15-70.3-0.6211.1620.344-0.818
2019-08-01Thu2019-07-3111034.0510980.0-54.05-0.492.3951.008-1.387
2019-08-08Thu2019-08-0710958.111032.4574.350.6782.0270.912-1.115
2019-08-14Wed2019-08-1311139.411029.4-110.0-0.9872.1930.058-2.135
2019-08-22Thu2019-08-2111018.1510741.35-276.8-2.5122.8670.146-2.721
2019-08-29Thu2019-08-2811101.310948.3-153.0-1.3781.8670.255-1.612
2019-09-05Thu2019-09-0410790.410847.957.50.5331.611.202-0.408
2019-09-12Thu2019-09-1111028.510982.8-45.7-0.4141.0590.483-0.576
2019-09-19Thu2019-09-1810872.810704.8-168.0-1.5451.9760.114-1.863
2019-09-26Thu2019-09-2511564.8511571.26.350.0551.6840.398-1.286
2019-10-03Thu2019-10-0111515.411314.0-201.4-1.7492.660.337-2.323
2019-10-10Thu2019-10-0911152.9511234.5581.60.7322.0751.512-0.563
2019-10-17Thu2019-10-1611464.9511586.35121.41.0591.641.17-0.47
2019-10-24Thu2019-10-2311596.211582.6-13.6-0.1171.250.719-0.531
2019-10-31Thu2019-10-3011883.911877.45-6.45-0.0541.3510.514-0.837
2019-11-07Thu2019-11-0611911.512012.05100.550.8441.4370.923-0.514
2019-11-14Thu2019-11-1311908.311872.1-36.2-0.3041.2110.323-0.887
2019-11-21Thu2019-11-2012004.7511968.4-36.35-0.3030.6810.282-0.399
2019-11-28Thu2019-11-2712068.512151.1582.650.6850.8590.748-0.111
2019-12-05Thu2019-12-0411969.9512018.448.450.4051.2190.929-0.289
2019-12-12Thu2019-12-1111867.3511971.8104.450.881.4591.164-0.295
2019-12-19Thu2019-12-1812197.012259.762.70.5140.860.585-0.275
2019-12-26Thu2019-12-2412269.2512126.55-142.7-1.1631.3440.118-1.226
2020-01-02Thu2020-01-0112202.1512282.280.050.6561.0210.719-0.302
2020-01-09Thu2020-01-0811939.112215.9276.82.3182.4662.387-0.08
2020-01-16Thu2020-01-1512349.412355.56.10.0490.8930.321-0.572
2020-01-23Thu2020-01-2212218.3512180.35-38.0-0.3111.1220.055-1.068
2020-01-30Thu2020-01-2912114.912035.8-79.1-0.6531.3120.452-0.861
2020-02-06Thu2020-02-0512005.8512137.95132.11.11.7261.289-0.437
2020-02-13Thu2020-02-1212151.012174.6523.650.1950.7570.665-0.092
2020-02-20Thu2020-02-1912090.612080.85-9.75-0.0810.9090.508-0.401
2020-02-27Thu2020-02-2611738.5511633.3-105.25-0.8972.10.381-1.72
2020-03-05Thu2020-03-0411351.3511269.0-82.35-0.7252.7080.336-2.372
2020-03-12Thu2020-03-1110334.39590.15-744.15-7.20110.0362.04-7.996
2020-03-19Thu2020-03-189088.458263.45-825.0-9.07714.2490.43-13.819
2020-03-26Thu2020-03-257735.158641.45906.311.71713.37113.108-0.264
2020-04-01Wed2020-03-318529.358253.8-275.55-3.2315.6271.746-3.881
2020-04-09Thu2020-04-088688.99111.9423.04.8685.4995.096-0.403
2020-04-16Thu2020-04-159196.48992.8-203.6-2.2144.7770.705-4.072
2020-04-23Thu2020-04-229026.759313.9287.153.1814.4023.51-0.892
2020-04-30Thu2020-04-299408.69859.9451.34.7975.2795.106-0.173
2020-05-07Thu2020-05-069226.89199.05-27.75-0.3012.4971.302-1.195
2020-05-14Thu2020-05-139584.29142.75-441.45-4.6064.8490.003-4.846
2020-05-21Thu2020-05-208889.159106.25217.12.4423.4113.256-0.155
2020-05-28Thu2020-05-279082.29490.1407.94.4915.5824.724-0.858
2020-06-04Thu2020-06-0310108.310029.1-79.2-0.7842.2950.672-1.623
2020-06-11Thu2020-06-1010072.69902.0-170.6-1.6942.6180.756-1.862
2020-06-18Thu2020-06-179876.710091.65214.952.1762.8092.374-0.434
2020-06-25Thu2020-06-2410529.2510288.9-240.35-2.2833.4060.227-3.179
2020-07-02Thu2020-07-0110323.810551.7227.92.2082.8922.658-0.234
2020-07-09Thu2020-07-0810818.6510813.45-5.2-0.0481.5830.27-1.313
2020-07-16Thu2020-07-1510701.010739.9538.950.3642.3331.182-1.152
2020-07-23Thu2020-07-2211231.211215.45-15.75-0.141.6320.077-1.555
2020-07-30Thu2020-07-2911276.911102.15-174.75-1.552.2740.572-1.702
2020-08-06Thu2020-08-0511155.7511200.1544.40.3981.7280.906-0.822
2020-08-13Thu2020-08-1211289.011300.4511.450.1011.0330.623-0.411
2020-08-20Thu2020-08-1911452.1511312.2-139.95-1.2221.4890.072-1.418
2020-08-27Thu2020-08-2611512.8511559.2546.40.4031.3510.908-0.443
2020-09-03Thu2020-09-0211478.5511527.4548.90.4261.3460.927-0.419
2020-09-10Thu2020-09-0911218.611449.25230.652.0562.4862.188-0.298
2020-09-17Thu2020-09-1611538.4511516.1-22.35-0.1941.0370.69-0.346
2020-09-24Thu2020-09-2311258.7510805.55-453.2-4.0254.1690.007-4.162
2020-10-01Thu2020-09-3011244.4511416.95172.51.5342.171.638-0.533
2020-10-08Thu2020-10-0711679.2511834.6155.351.332.3661.939-0.427
2020-10-15Thu2020-10-1411917.411680.35-237.05-1.9893.0560.907-2.149
2020-10-22Thu2020-10-2111958.5511896.45-62.1-0.5192.0310.503-1.529
2020-10-29Thu2020-10-2811922.611670.8-251.8-2.1122.7090.057-2.652
2020-11-05Thu2020-11-0411783.3512120.3336.952.863.182.951-0.229
2020-11-12Thu2020-11-1112680.612690.810.20.081.5670.703-0.864
2020-11-19Thu2020-11-1812860.112771.7-88.4-0.6871.6890.8-0.889
2020-11-26Thu2020-11-2513130.012987.0-143.0-1.0892.7070.121-2.586
2020-12-03Thu2020-12-0213121.413133.912.50.0951.7760.726-1.051
2020-12-10Thu2020-12-0913458.113478.320.20.151.1120.675-0.437
2020-12-17Thu2020-12-1613663.113740.777.60.5681.2210.806-0.415
2020-12-24Thu2020-12-2313473.513749.25275.752.0472.522.214-0.307
2020-12-31Thu2020-12-3013980.913981.750.850.0061.1440.314-0.829
2021-01-07Thu2021-01-0614240.9514137.35-103.6-0.7271.5190.107-1.412
2021-01-14Thu2021-01-1314639.814595.6-44.2-0.3021.4870.093-1.394
2021-01-21Thu2021-01-2014538.314590.3552.050.3581.6251.481-0.145
2021-01-28Thu2021-01-2714237.9513817.55-420.4-2.9533.6850.0-3.685
2021-02-04Thu2021-02-0314754.914895.65140.750.9542.3011.076-1.225
2021-02-11Thu2021-02-1015119.0515173.354.250.3591.3980.459-0.938
2021-02-18Thu2021-02-1715279.915118.95-160.95-1.0531.5460.225-1.321
2021-02-25Thu2021-02-2414729.1515097.35368.22.53.0793.037-0.041
2021-03-04Thu2021-03-0315064.415080.7516.350.1091.9451.386-0.559
2021-03-10Wed2021-03-0915049.915174.8124.90.831.9471.12-0.827
2021-03-18Thu2021-03-1714946.5514557.85-388.7-2.6013.1980.067-3.131
2021-03-25Thu2021-03-2414712.4514324.9-387.55-2.6343.3170.271-3.045
2021-04-01Thu2021-03-3114811.8514867.3555.50.3751.4380.482-0.956
2021-04-08Thu2021-04-0714716.4514873.8157.351.0692.2721.819-0.453
2021-04-15Thu2021-04-1314364.914581.45216.551.5072.2461.62-0.627
2021-04-22Thu2021-04-2014526.714406.15-120.55-0.832.5850.002-2.584
2021-04-29Thu2021-04-2814710.514894.9184.41.2542.3752.269-0.106
2021-05-06Thu2021-05-0514604.1514724.8120.650.8261.6250.957-0.668
2021-05-12Wed2021-05-1114789.714696.5-93.2-0.631.6920.746-0.947
2021-05-20Thu2021-05-1915058.614906.05-152.55-1.0131.650.497-1.153
2021-05-27Thu2021-05-2615257.0515337.8580.80.531.2430.836-0.407
2021-06-03Thu2021-06-0215520.3515690.35170.01.0951.581.19-0.39
2021-06-10Thu2021-06-0915766.315737.75-28.55-0.1811.4810.217-1.265
2021-06-17Thu2021-06-1615847.515691.4-156.1-0.9851.6670.21-1.456
2021-06-24Thu2021-06-2315862.815790.45-72.35-0.4561.1910.001-1.191
2021-07-01Thu2021-06-3015776.915680.0-96.9-0.6141.0910.394-0.696
2021-07-08Thu2021-07-0715819.615727.9-91.7-0.581.3320.467-0.864
2021-07-15Thu2021-07-1415808.715924.2115.50.7311.190.909-0.281
2021-07-22Thu2021-07-2015703.9515824.05120.10.7651.6320.833-0.799
2021-07-29Thu2021-07-2815761.5515778.4516.90.1071.9280.354-1.574
2021-08-05Thu2021-08-0416195.2516294.699.350.6131.070.952-0.118
2021-08-12Thu2021-08-1116327.316364.437.10.2271.3040.295-1.009
2021-08-18Wed2021-08-1716545.2516568.8523.60.1431.2480.946-0.301
2021-08-26Thu2021-08-2516654.016636.9-17.1-0.1030.6550.351-0.304
2021-09-02Thu2021-09-0117185.617234.1548.550.2831.1080.349-0.76
2021-09-09Thu2021-09-0817375.7517369.25-6.5-0.0370.7440.044-0.7
2021-09-16Thu2021-09-1517387.6517629.5241.851.3911.4821.478-0.004
2021-09-23Thu2021-09-2217580.917822.95242.051.3771.821.496-0.324
2021-09-30Thu2021-09-2917657.9517618.15-39.8-0.2251.1120.701-0.411
2021-10-07Thu2021-10-0617861.517790.35-71.15-0.3981.520.129-1.39
2021-10-14Thu2021-10-1318097.8518338.55240.71.331.6581.397-0.26
2021-10-21Thu2021-10-2018439.918178.1-261.8-1.422.2250.1-2.125
2021-10-28Thu2021-10-2718295.8517857.25-438.6-2.3972.9660.253-2.713
2021-11-03Wed2021-11-0217970.917829.2-141.7-0.7881.4150.23-1.185
2021-11-11Thu2021-11-1017973.4517873.6-99.85-0.5561.4640.488-0.975
2021-11-18Thu2021-11-1717939.3517764.8-174.55-0.9731.8630.464-1.398
2021-11-25Thu2021-11-2417550.0517536.25-13.8-0.0791.4180.288-1.13
2021-12-02Thu2021-12-0117104.417401.65297.251.7382.0821.847-0.235
2021-12-09Thu2021-12-0817315.2517516.85201.61.1641.3531.317-0.036
2021-12-16Thu2021-12-1517323.6517248.4-75.25-0.4341.1220.322-0.801
2021-12-23Thu2021-12-2216865.5517072.6207.051.2281.7741.501-0.273
2021-12-30Thu2021-12-2917220.117203.95-16.15-0.0940.8110.382-0.428
2022-01-06Thu2022-01-0517820.117745.9-74.2-0.4161.6230.699-0.923
2022-01-13Thu2022-01-1218170.418257.887.40.4810.7890.561-0.229
2022-01-20Thu2022-01-1918129.217757.0-372.2-2.0532.6520.0-2.652
2022-01-27Thu2022-01-2517001.5517110.15108.60.6392.7781.809-0.969
2022-02-03Thu2022-02-0217706.217560.2-146.0-0.8251.6010.499-1.102
2022-02-10Thu2022-02-0917370.117605.85235.751.3571.731.551-0.179
2022-02-17Thu2022-02-1617408.4517304.6-103.85-0.5971.4630.472-0.991
2022-02-24Thu2022-02-2317194.516247.95-946.55-5.5055.9170.152-5.765
2022-03-03Thu2022-03-0216593.116498.05-95.05-0.5731.9651.06-0.905
2022-03-10Thu2022-03-0916078.016594.9516.93.2154.7724.225-0.547
2022-03-17Thu2022-03-1616876.6517287.05410.42.4323.0032.773-0.23
2022-03-24Thu2022-03-2317405.0517222.75-182.3-1.0472.0180.215-1.803
2022-03-31Thu2022-03-3017468.1517464.75-3.4-0.0190.9880.525-0.463
2022-04-07Thu2022-04-0617842.7517639.55-203.2-1.1391.5540.326-1.228
2022-04-13Wed2022-04-1217584.8517475.65-109.2-0.6211.2580.448-0.81
2022-04-21Thu2022-04-2017045.2517392.6347.352.0382.5562.167-0.389
2022-04-28Thu2022-04-2717073.3517245.05171.71.0062.1321.459-0.673
2022-05-05Thu2022-05-0417096.616682.65-413.95-2.4212.9770.212-2.765
2022-05-12Thu2022-05-1116270.0515808.0-462.05-2.843.5830.299-3.284
2022-05-19Thu2022-05-1816318.1515809.4-508.75-3.1183.8280.5-3.327
2022-05-26Thu2022-05-2516196.3516170.15-26.2-0.1621.9740.167-1.807
2022-06-02Thu2022-06-0116594.416628.033.60.2021.2680.33-0.937
2022-06-09Thu2022-06-0816474.9516478.13.150.0191.6420.239-1.403
2022-06-16Thu2022-06-1515729.2515360.6-368.65-2.3443.3570.851-2.506
2022-06-23Thu2022-06-2215545.6515556.6511.00.0711.6790.533-1.146
2022-06-30Thu2022-06-2915701.715780.2578.550.51.2881.199-0.089
2022-07-07Thu2022-07-0615818.216132.9314.71.9892.212.101-0.109
2022-07-14Thu2022-07-1316128.215938.65-189.55-1.1751.7470.073-1.674
2022-07-21Thu2022-07-2016562.816605.2542.450.2560.8640.387-0.476
2022-07-28Thu2022-07-2716475.3516929.6454.252.7573.0892.867-0.222
2022-08-04Thu2022-08-0317349.2517382.032.750.1891.8990.815-1.084
2022-08-11Thu2022-08-1017566.117659.092.90.5291.5740.872-0.702
2022-08-18Thu2022-08-1717868.1517956.588.350.4940.7560.561-0.195
2022-08-25Thu2022-08-2417525.4517522.45-3.0-0.0171.3641.147-0.217
2022-09-01Thu2022-08-3017414.9517542.8127.850.7342.162.083-0.077
2022-09-08Thu2022-09-0717519.417798.75279.351.5951.8461.645-0.2
2022-09-15Thu2022-09-1417771.1517877.4106.250.5981.8291.8290.0
2022-09-22Thu2022-09-2117766.3517629.8-136.55-0.7691.7240.407-1.317
2022-09-29Thu2022-09-2816870.5516818.1-52.45-0.3111.4760.99-0.486
2022-10-06Thu2022-10-0417147.4517331.8184.351.0751.8171.641-0.176
2022-10-13Thu2022-10-1217025.5517014.35-11.2-0.0661.0890.686-0.403
2022-10-20Thu2022-10-1917568.1517563.95-4.2-0.0241.0620.225-0.838
2022-10-27Thu2022-10-2517808.317736.95-71.35-0.4010.980.018-0.962
2022-11-03Thu2022-11-0218177.918052.7-125.2-0.6891.2080.005-1.203
2022-11-10Thu2022-11-0918288.2518028.2-260.05-1.4221.7880.045-1.743
2022-11-17Thu2022-11-1618398.2518343.9-54.35-0.2950.7020.239-0.464
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2026-10-06Tue2026-10-0522532.422776.1243.71.0821.6821.082-0.6
2026-10-13Tue2026-10-1222593.222721.95128.750.571.9190.57-1.349
2026-10-19Mon2026-10-1623065.122888.95-176.15-0.7641.4320.478-0.954

Rules and parameters

Rules

  1. Weekly expiry E = each Nifty expiry date from the NSE F&O files (holiday-shifted contracts use the last session traded); E-1 = previous trading session.
  2. Net move = close(E)/open(E-1) - 1; swing = highest high minus lowest low over E-1 and E as % of the E-1 open.
  3. OTM+k = k strikes (50 points each) beyond the strike nearest the E-1 open.
  4. Indicative result: sell call and put at OTM+k, premium proxy = settlement price on E-2, payout = intrinsic value at expiry; no costs.

Parameters

data
NSE official daily index OHLC (2013 onward); NSE F&O bhavcopy for expiries, strikes and settlement prices
period
14 Feb 2019 to 19 Oct 2026
expiries
405
report
docs/nifty-weekly-expiry-move-study.html
code
research/expmove/expmove.py

Instrument

Descriptive study; OTM+2, +3, +4 strike breach rates and an indicative sold-strangle result before costs · capital ₹0

Known limitations

Logs and raw data

Downloads appear once a data window is loaded.

Files are plain CSV so results can be re-computed independently. Trade dates are IST sessions; returns are net of modelled costs and slippage.