Every strategy, tested the same way

Longbow Learned v2.0.0

Machine-learning stock ranking blended with the Longbow rule (TensorTrade-inspired study) · A LightGBM model that estimates which stocks will land in the top fifth of the next 4 weeks' returns, averaged 50/50 with the Longbow momentum score; same portfolio rules as Longbow Weekly.

Unproven: better than the rule on paper, but not reliably, and much weaker than first published. Survivorship-free, out-of-sample 2012-2025-09: 21.9% at 1x, 18.3% at 2x against the index at 14.1%; validation 2018-2025-09: 20.8% at 1x, 17.4% at 2x (index 11.8%); worst fall 28.7%. The sealed hold-out showed no difference from the plain rule.

Forward paper run: 2 sessions, equity ₹2,001,538

Longbow Weekly v2.0.0

Fourteen weekly Nifty 500 ideas tested; risk-adjusted momentum with a market filter is the only candidate · Weekly scan of liquid Nifty 500 stocks: top 15 by risk-adjusted 39-week momentum (skipping the last 4 weeks), monthly rebalance, in cash when the Nifty 500 is below its 26-week average.

Candidate, weaker than first published: edge over the index is modest once delisted stocks are included. Survivorship-free 2007-2025-09: 18.9% at 1x, 15.0% at 2x, 11.0% at 3x against the index at 10.8%; worst fall 32.5%; ahead of the index in 42% of years. The sealed hold-out (2025-10 to 2026-10-16) did not confirm a profit (-1.4% against the index at -3.3%).

Forward paper run: 2 sessions, equity ₹500,385

Meridian v1.0.0

Nifty 500 Momentum · Nifty 500 cross-sectional momentum, regime-gated

Hold-out did not confirm. Strong in the development window, but the 12-month sealed hold-out lost money and trailed the index; the forward paper run is now the deciding evidence.

RANK500 v2.0.0

Pooled LightGBM weekly ranking of Nifty 500 stocks at ₹50 lakh: walk-forward 2010 to Sep 2025, two frozen portfolio versions · Ranks Nifty 500 stocks every week with one pooled LightGBM, holds the top 30 with a buffer against churn, and tests two frozen portfolio versions out of sample from 2010 with realistic delivery costs and liquidity-tiered slippage.

Candidate: validation edge survives full data, but development was only level with the index and 2011 was a 48% loss. Survivorship-free validation 2018-2025-09: v2 21.3% at 1x, 18.7% at 2x, 16.5% at 3x (index 11.8%, alpha t 2.1); development 2010-2017 10.7% at 1x (index 10.1%); full 2010-2025 15.7%, worst fall 50%; random picks 2.8% median.

Nifty 500 trio: comparison and sizing v1.0.0

Longbow Weekly, Longbow Learned and RANK500 re-tested without survivorship bias, correlated and sized (Kelly) · Survivorship-free re-test of three Nifty 500 weekly strategies, their correlations, a combined portfolio and Kelly sizing, 2012 to Sep 2025.

Research study: two of the three are redundant; RANK500 is the complement. Weekly returns 2012 to Sep 2025: W and M correlation 0.89; R against W 0.46, against M 0.42, about 0 against both in the index's worst weeks. 50/50 M and R: 22.5% a year, drawdown 19.8%, validation Sharpe 1.03. Kelly (no leverage) is fully invested in R and M; fitted on 2012-2017 it did worse out of sample than equal weights.

Nightjar v1.1.0

Overnight short strangle on Nifty weekly options, re-costed with standard Dhan charges and 1% slippage per full cycle · The same pre-registered finalist as Nightjar 1.0, re-tested after the owner replaced the cost assumptions with the standard Dhan charge schedule and 0.5% slippage per fill (1% per full cycle).

Passes the re-costed rule; forward paper run scheduled from 2026-10-26. Same finalist, cheaper standard costs: Nifty +₹1,476 per night on the sealed period (t 2.6), +₹1,681 overall; Sensex +₹693 (t 1.8) but only +₹344 in its second half.

Forward paper run: 3 sessions, equity ₹1,480,324

Meridian Adaptive v1.1.0

Nifty 500 Momentum, risk tiers · Same engine with breadth- and volatility-based risk tiers

Rejected. Higher headline return, but better than the standard version in only 4 of 10 years with no improvement in drawdown.

Cinder v1.0.0

ATM EMA short seller on frozen Nifty weekly options (EMA2/EMA20 cross on the 5-minute premium chart) · Sells the frozen ATM call or put when its 5-minute EMA2 crosses below EMA20, with a 20% stop, an 80% premium-drop target, an EMA10 trail and a 15:15 square-off.

No edge: loses before and after costs. Development 2277 trades: mean ₹-699 per day (t -6.3), win rate 24%, gross ₹-81 a trade before ₹130 of charges; validation ₹-593 a day. Random-time shorts with the same exits: median ₹-640 a day.

Compass v0.2.0

ML direction model for Nifty options (brief ML-NIFTY-F&O-01), Gate 1: does ML beat buy and hold? · Tests whether machine-learning models predict Nifty's 1 to 5 day direction better than simply staying long, out of sample over 2013 to 2024, before any options work.

Gate 1 failed: no skill over buy and hold. Across 12 pre-registered variants the best machine-learning model gained +0.006% per decision over always-long (t = 0.06, reality-check p = 0.87). The project stops here by its own rule.

Compass A v0.2.0

Do option-market features (IV, skew, put/call open interest) add direction information for Nifty? · Tests whether implied volatility, skew, put/call open interest and implied move predict Nifty's next-session direction beyond price and VIX features.

No detectable skill at this sample size. Best option-feature variant gained +0.057% per session over the better baseline (t = 0.58, p = 0.26); reality-check p = 0.37 across 8 variants.

Doji Ember v0.1.0

Nifty 500 daily doji + 5/20 EMA, OTM options · Doji bar in an EMA5/EMA20 trend with a 1-to-2 directional streak: buy one-strike OTM call (or put), exit on EMA5 close, 2x, or day 5.

No robust edge. The result flips from +3.4% to -5.9% per trade depending on one fill assumption, so there is no reliable edge. Calls never make money; puts only in the optimistic case.

MGTS-v1D v1.0.0-D

Gamma-aligned multi-timeframe option spreads on Nifty weekly options (daily open-interest gamma, not live GEX) · Classifies the day by dealer gamma (rebuilt from the previous close's open interest), then sells spreads at prior-day and opening-range extremes in positive gamma or buys breakout spreads in negative gamma.

No edge, and the idea cannot be tested as written. Development 137 trades, mean ₹-17 per day (t -1.4); validation 28 trades, ₹-25; 3 of 11 conditions passed

Monthly Bollinger breakout v1.0.0

Monthly Bollinger Band breakout with RSI, candle and ATR filters, ATR exits, a portfolio-wide exit rule and risk-based sizing, ₹50 lakh, 2006 to 2025 · Buys the next month's open after a monthly close above the 20-month, 2-sigma Bollinger band (first in six months); exits below the 20-month average or on a Supertrend flip; filters, ATR exits, portfolio-wide exit and sizing rules tested on survivorship-free data.

No edge: the best configuration is not distinguishable from selection among many. Baseline 8.9% a year (2x costs) against the Nifty 200's 11.3%, drawdown 50.7%. Best of 211 configurations: 17.0% against 9.1% in development, 15.9% against 14.0% in validation (13.0% against 14.0% from a fresh start), alpha t 0.42, reality check p = 0.70.

NIFOPT v1.0.0

Nifty options intraday long CE/PE at ₹1 lakh: the owner's spec tested unchanged · Owner's spec v2.0.0 and engine run unchanged on 5 years of Dhan expired-option minute data: not feasible at ₹1 lakh, and no edge at any capital where it trades.

Not feasible at ₹1 lakh; no demonstrated edge at ₹2 to 7.5 lakh. Baseline places 0 trades at ₹1 lakh (one lot needs ₹1,160 to ₹1,979 risk against a ₹500 budget). Scaled to ₹4 lakh: development 138 trades −1.4% (PF 0.94), validation 82 trades −10.3% (PF 0.44). Live deployment stays on hold.

NIFOPT2 v1.0.0

Nifty option buying, intraday, ML-scored, ₹1 to 10 lakh: the 1% a day target is not reachable · Walk-forward LightGBM on 32 spot and option features with trend/ADX/cost filters, risk sizing and daily halts, tested at ₹1, 2, 3, 5 and 10 lakh at Dhan 1x costs.

No edge at 1% a day, at any capital from ₹1 lakh to ₹10 lakh. 2,880 development configurations (8 exit rules × 3 score cut-offs × 3 ADX × 2 day-stops × 4 risk settings × 5 capitals): fewer than 1% have profit factor above 1, none reaches PF 1.1. Frozen validation: ₹1 lakh -0.036%/day, ₹5 lakh +0.038%/day, ₹10 lakh +0.052% a day against a 1% target.

NIFOPT3 v1.0.0

Owner's breakout + trailing-stop Nifty option buying: reviewed, fixed and tested on 968 sessions · Draft rules from the owner's brief tested on 1-minute data with fixes for look-ahead and fills: all 144 configurations lose in sample and out of sample.

No edge: do not trade this live. 144 of 144 configurations negative net of costs in sample and out of sample. Selected plateau config OOS: 638 trades, ₹-141 per trade, PF 0.65, bootstrap 95% interval ₹-203 to ₹-80; negative even before charges.

Nightjar v1.0.0

Overnight short strangle on Nifty weekly options, inspired by a Tradetron Sensex report · Tests whether selling a short strangle at the end of the day and buying it back the next morning keeps its profit once realistic costs are charged.

Passes on Nifty, fails the Sensex replication: not paper-traded. A pre-registered finalist (sell within two sessions of expiry at 15:15, buy back next midday) made +₹871 a night at 2x costs on 50 sealed Nifty nights and +₹1,035 over all 196 nights, but on Sensex it was +₹368 then -₹331 (about zero overall). Rule set beforehand: both halves of Sensex positive. It failed, so no paper run.

OPTSELL v1.0.0

Systematic Nifty option selling: 18,576 variants, non-intraday on real end-of-day prices and intraday on 1-minute prices · Tests every sensible way to sell Nifty options (strangles, condors, trend credit spreads, weekly and monthly, with volatility, trend and move filters, stops and targets) against a 30% net return and a 15% drawdown cap.

No edge at 30% / 15%: the target is not reachable with option selling in this data. Non-intraday: 17,280 variants, none reaches 30% a year (best within a 15% drawdown cap 19%); intraday: 1,296 variants, 1% profitable in development. 3 of 6 pre-registered conditions passed.

Obsidian Atlas v1.0.0

CRUDEOILM end-of-day search · 264 configurations with reality-check p-values and sub-period stability.

No candidates. None of 264 configurations passed the reality-check and stability gates.

Obsidian Nocturne v1.0.0

CRUDEOILM sell-today-buy-tomorrow · Short at the close, cover next morning (STBT), with the mirror long (BTST).

No edge found. The market shows no overnight drift to harvest, so the ₹58 round-trip cost makes STBT lose money on average, and the ₹600 maximum-loss rule cannot be enforced overnight.

Obsidian Sentinel v1.0.0

CRUDEOILM daily signal · Daily-bar signal with intraday execution, walk-forward.

No edge found. Out-of-sample t-statistic -0.83 over 80 trades; nothing to promote.

Obsidian Vector v2.0.0

CRUDEOILM reversion, gap, shock · Reversion, gap, volatility-shock and weekday variants.

No edge found. Out-of-sample t-statistic 0.00. Volatility-shock momentum is the only recurring lead and stays a hypothesis.

Quickfuse v1.1.0

Nifty 50 weekly-option fused scalp (VWAP, ORB, EMA, CPR, RSI, price action, volume) · Buys an ATM weekly call or put when 4 of 5 trend, pullback, momentum, volume and breakout conditions line up, in two intraday windows.

Closed: no edge. After 186,480 tested combinations, no setup is profitable and robust at 2x costs with drawdown under 20%. The specification as written loses ₹268 a trade (t -4.9), no better than random entries (-₹240).

Quiet Harbour v1.0.0

Buying statistical dips inside a regression uptrend (owner-supplied code) · Buy when a 100-bar regression slope is positive with R-squared of at least 0.35, the 20-bar z-score is at or below -1.5, and price has not crashed more than 2.5 ATR; stop 2 ATR, target 3 ATR, risk 0.5% of equity per trade.

No edge. As supplied the rule earns almost nothing: 0.2% a year on the Nifty 50 index and about 0% a year on a Nifty 500 stock portfolio before stress. At 2x costs the stock portfolio loses 7% a year. No variant of 144 clears 8% a year with drawdown under 20% in both periods.

SFX v1.0.0

Regime-aware ranked stock futures: breakout and pullback, long and short, walk-forward 2020 to 2025 · The owner's stock-futures specification tested on real contract data with nested walk-forward: no leg passes, and at ₹20 lakh one lot is almost always too large for the risk limit.

No edge, and not feasible at ₹20 lakh with 0.5% risk. Stitched walk-forward 2020-01 to 2025-09 at current costs: pullback long 192 trades +0.064R, the other three legs negative. Reality check across 785 series p = 0.88. One lot at a 1.5-ATR stop risks a median ₹24,000 to ₹40,000 a year against ₹10,000 allowed.

SMA-distance trend study v1.0.0

When does a Nifty 50 trend start after a close 1 to 5% beyond its 10 or 20-period SMA? Daily, weekly and monthly, 2007 to 2026 · Counts the first close at least 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5% above or below the 10 or 20-period SMA and measures what the index did next: sustained-trend rate, forward returns, excursions, false breakouts and cross-backs, with confidence intervals and a multiple-comparison correction.

Weak, mostly inconclusive: no threshold is a reliable trend signal. Best-supported: daily close 2-4% above the 10/20-SMA (sustained uptrend 29%-30% vs 20% baseline), but late and only weakly significant; downward signals mark rebounds.

Tidewatch v1.0.0

Nifty multi-day futures and options (trend, momentum, breakout, reversion, VIX, calendar) · Tests whether holding Nifty for days or weeks, where costs are small next to the moves, gives a profitable strategy with drawdown under 20% of ₹5 lakh.

No robust edge; passes the screens only at ₹15 lakh. At ₹5 lakh nothing passed. At ₹15 lakh, where one futures lot is about 1x leverage and the drawdown limit is ₹3 lakh, 17 of the 44 rules are profitable at 3x costs in both periods within that limit, but the gains are small (about 1% to 5% of capital a year above cash), the trend rules show no timing skill, and the reality check across them gives p = 0.175.

Tidewater v1.0.0

RSI(14) long reversal after a 50-day stretch below 50, Nifty 500 stocks, ₹10 lakh, 25% drawdown limit · Buys when a stock's RSI crosses above 50 after more than 50 calendar days below it, with a stop under the 50-day low and three profit exits.

No edge: failed the pre-registered rule. Net CAGR +5.0% in development (647 trades, win rate 56%, average +0.10R), -3.3% in validation; alpha versus the Nifty 500 +1.4% a year (t 0.5) and negative at 2x costs. Random entries with identical exits earned a median +5.5%.

Tidewater R v2.0.0

Regime-scaled risk: 2% at risk in a calm uptrend, 0.75% otherwise (separate return-boost test) · Tests whether risking more when the market is above its 200-day average and the VIX is calm, and less otherwise, lifts the RSI-50 reversal strategy's returns.

Failed: more risk, same lack of edge. Regime-scaled risk gave +0.8% in development (drawdown 30.5%, breaching the 25% limit) and -2.6% in validation, below the random-entry medians (+4.0% and -4.9%).

Tidewater v2 grid v2.0.0

27 variants: RSI level and days below it (30/40/50) with no, trend (200-day) or volatility (VIX) regime filters · Tests whether other RSI levels and day counts, and a market-regime filter, rescue the RSI-50 reversal rule; one pre-registered run on development, selection by development only.

No variant or filter helps. Selection on development alone picked the original 50/50 rule without a filter: net +5.0% in development, -3.3% in validation; reality-check p 0.89 across the 27 variants (the best raw t-statistic belongs to a variant with one trade).

Compass B v0.3.0

Short-horizon cross-sectional ML ranking, long/short in stock futures (development gate) · Tests whether ranking stocks by a LightGBM score at 1 and 3 days and going long the top and short the bottom survives futures-level costs.

Failed the lot-aware gate at the stated costs; unproven at realistic costs. At 1% slippage per full cycle the 5+5 book on Rs 20 lakh loses -318% of capital over 2024 to Sep 2025 (t = -5.2). Break-even slippage is 0.28% per full cycle; liquid stock futures typically cost far less, but that is unmeasured.

Obsidian Pincer v0.1.0

CRUDEOILM inverted strangle · Both option legs in the money; needs options data we do not yet hold.

Not testable yet. The bhavcopy files we hold contain futures only, so no option price, implied volatility or margin can be tested; we will not invent premiums.

Weekly expiry move study v1.0.0

Nifty 50: open of the session before expiry to the close on expiry day, every weekly expiry since 2019 · For every Nifty weekly expiry, measures the move from the open of the previous session to the expiry close, how often it exceeded 2% and 5%, and how often the OTM+2/+3/+4 strikes were breached.

Descriptive: the 100-200 point strikes are breached often; tail moves drive the risk. Net move open(E-1) to close(E): median 0.65%, 90th percentile 2.10%; >±2% in 11.6% of expiries, >±5% in 4.

Ironbark v1.2.0

Nifty 500 five-day LightGBM swing with TabFM veto and ATR sizing · Tests a LightGBM five-day ranker (with a Google TabFM veto idea), ATR sizing and a drawdown halt, first as delivery equity, then as stock futures in whole lots at ₹50 lakh.

Signal real, edge did not hold on the second look. Delivery equity fails on costs. As stock futures in whole lots at ₹50 lakh, the 4-name version made +13.0% a year at 2x costs in development (2018-2023, drawdown 7%) but only +4.7% in 2024-01 to 2025-09 (index +9.4%, drawdown 19%); the 6-name version made -1.4%. Pre-registered gate failed; paper run cancelled; hold-out left sealed.